The New York Islanders won the draft lottery tonight, giving them rights to select first overall in this year's entry draft.
I've said all along that the Islanders haven't made up their mind on whether they want Tavares or Hedman. If they're really fixed on Tavares, which might be the case as an Islanders representative has been spending a lot of time in London with Tavares and the Knights, then I'm not sure Burke can do anything to wrestle the top pick from Garth Snow's hands.
Then again, Burke has been through this before. In Hartford, he was able to move up to the 2nd spot to grab Chris Pronger, and with Vancouver he moved up to get both of the Sedin twins. As Jim Kelley reports, Burke is not blowing hot air when he says he wants Tavares.
It's hard to imagine what it's going to take to land him, but believe me Burke will mount one hell of a campaign.
Leafs fans, be ready to see Burke overpay for Tavares. Keep in mind, if you want to see this team being led by a top end offensive talent for years to come, then you should be cheering Burke all the way along.
Burke Openly States He's Fixed on Tavares; What Now?
Would Burke Trade Up in the Draft?
Interesting article from the Toronto Sun. They like to stir things up, and there's probably not a lot to it, but for what it's worth it's an interesting notion.
They're claiming that Burke "is expected to take a run at the top overall pick (and John Tavares) by attempting to trade up. His trump card? The organization has the monetary resources to spice up a deal, especially with a financially strapped team."
I highly doubt that Burke would be able to wrestle the top pick from the Islanders, who are in dire need of a superstar like Tavares. I think the first pick this year is untouchable, and certainly out of the price range Burke would consider.
Nevertheless, if Burke believes that the player he wants will be gone before 7th, he might have to move. It's unfortunate that this situation might cost us something big, when we could have easily fallen a few spots in the draft by just losing a bit more.
Nonetheless, we are where we are. I say we just stay 7th. We'll get someone good.
I'm going to do a full first round preview, but if you look at the rankings, we're sure to get a very good player at the seventh pick. He'res my projecting of the first seven picks, assuming that the Islanders win the lottery.
1. John Tavares - NYI
2. Victor Hedman - TBL
3. Matt Duchene - COL
4. Magnus Paajarvi-Svennson - ATL
5. Evander Kane - LAK
6. Jared Cowen - PHX
7. ? - TOR
Who will the Leafs select?
There are certainly a few names that Toronto could consider, including Brayden Schenn, Jordan Schroeder, Nazem Kadri, Dmitri Kulikov, Ryan Ellis, Simon Despres and Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
Out of those, the most likely to be considered are Schenn, Schroeder and Kadri, all forwards.
Of the teams in the top seven, the most likely to trade their pick for stars in their prime is probably either the LA Kings or Tampa Bay Lightning.
If either of those teams were to win the lottery, thus giving them the first pick, they would consider moving it for the right price.
Leafs Settle for Seventh Pick
The Leafs played their last game of the season against their provincial and divisional rivals, the Ottawa Senators. What should have been a satisfying way to finish the season turned out to be a large headache for some hoping the Leafs would move up in the draft.
Last night, the team just needed to lose against the Seantors and have Pheonix and Los Angeles win, in order to find ourselves slipping into the 5th overall pick in the entry draft. That would have then given us a marginal, 8% chance at winning the first overall pick. While the two other teams won their games against much better opponents, the Leafs found a way to win theirs, negating the other two team's advances in the standings.
So the Leafs will enter the draft with all likelihood the 7th overall pick, unless we win the draft lottery with a 4% chance of getting moved up to the 3rd pick.
Last night's win should have been a vindication to most Leafs fans. We have a nack for beating the Senators when the teams meet up last, whether it's in the regular season on playoffs. It was a storybook finish to an otherwise meaningless season. Boyd Deveraux capped his poor season off with a hattrick effort to push the Leafs over the Senators one more time, and just like that it's golfing season for both clubs.
Many people are upset that we don't get that 8% shot at Tavares, a better chance at a franchise player than winning a doughnut with your next Roll Up The Rim To Win coffee.
Let's be realistic, though. Is Burke's rebuilding plan going to rely on the luck of a bingo-style lottery draw? Or is he, like many GMs before him, going to build a contender by taking the situation that's presented to him?
Cheers, We Lose
For the remaing portion of the season in front of us, most Leafs fans will be watching their team stumble through games and rotate in the standings between sixth, fifth and fourth last place in the league. It is, after all, a top pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft that we're setting our sights on.
For the more hardcore Leafs fans among us, we're also hoping that the teams below in us in the standings win more games than us, so to prove our own draft position. That means, like a Proline ticket, we're cheering on teams we'd never dream of.
Fist pump in the air, the Thrashers dumped the Rangers. Hooray, the Islanders just took the Bruins to overtime.
While this is all good and fun, it's rather depressing for some of us. This league is about winning, not losing.
And it's also true that even if the Leafs rebuild, the window for winning a Stanley Cup will be smaller for us than it was in the past. Unless the Leafs scouts continue to bag excellent prospects in the draft, it'll be hard to hold onto our best players as they demand raises and long contracts.
In the current economic climate, most franchises are trying to come to terms with the reality that the salary cap may be shrinking in the years to come, and are being more selective on who they do and do not retain.
That means the teams with real chances at going for the big prize are going to foolishly hit the markets to sign the league's premium players to inflated, extended contracts. Meanwhile, the fans of teams that let them go delusionally laugh off the fact that their stars have left for money that their team was too smart to hand out.
The league is getting way too technical, and it's becoming too much a financial war. I don't like thinking about the cap, or who we won't be able to retain five years after we draft them.
I just want to enjoy some hockey.
Down Goes Cowen
Just a small update here. Top prospect Jared Cowen blew out his knee yesterday and will be out for five months.
For a youngster trying to push himself up the NHL rankings, this is a devastating blow. Maple Leafs Hotstove recently made a good argument as to why the Leafs should draft a D-man this year. Check it out.
He is widely considered a top ten prospect for this year's draft, and hands down the number two defensive prospect, behind Swedish Elite League defensemen Victor Hedman.
Cowen was one of the last players cut from this year's U20 Canadian World Junior Team. He would have been a great addition, and will certaintly get his chance next December. That is, unless his team needs him that badly.
Brayden Schenn Love, Power Rankings, Pogge, Pickups
Poll: Will Kaberle Get Moved Before the Trade Deadline? Plus Last Week's Results
In this week's poll I'm asking you to reflect on the recent developments surrounding the Leaf's Tomas Kaberle. He is likely to still recieve lots of interest from playoff contenders despite his broken hand that will keep him out until late February/early March.
Burke, however, has made it clear that he's not eager to move Kaberle. A guy of his calibre is hard to replace. It only makes sense for Burke to trade Kaberle if the return is high and future oriented. For example, were the offer Karl Alzner or Thomas Hickey and a draft pick, it wouldn't be a bad move for Burke to make.
In last week's poll I asked you who the Leafs would pick, were they to draft third in 2009. In other words, I wanted to know who the number one guy is to Leafs fans after Tavares and Hedman, the consensus top two for this year's draft. Not surprisingly, a majority of you picked Brayden Schenn, the younger brother of current Leaf Luke Schenn. Brayden will definitely be scrutinized by Leafs scouts in the upcoming months, if not already. He is ranked 5th by NHL Central Scouting, right around where the Leafs might pick.
However, I must say that there probably is one guy who is far and away more talented than Schenn. His name is Matt Duchene. A prolific scorer for the OHL's Brampton Batallion, Duchene played for Canada's U18 squad and was one of the last cuts for this year's World U20 competition. I'm confident that if we had the third pick we would take Duchene, but if the Leafs hover around the 4-7 mark, we might be able to get Schenn. What a great thing it would be for Brayden to play with his older brother.
Rankings Reassessed
I've done another update to my power rankings list. In the last update I had Nik Antropov in the number one position. Who's the new number one? Go to the power rankings now.
Plyons Protecting Pogge
Justin Pogge was back in net against the Buffalo Sabres Wednesday as part of the Leaf's 'plan' to gauge what the blue-chip prospect is made of. You might think it's hard to gauge a goalie when the defence in front of him plays like a bunch of pylons. The fact is there, though - in spite of alowing five goals, Pogge was able to stop 40 other chances. That, in front of the defensive support he received that night, is simply remarkable.
He's a very athletic goaltender, and with time he will learn to use his body to cover the angles and conserve his energy. He won't say it himself, but he probably wishes he could get just a bit more help back there. If you're Justin Pogge, you hope the Leafs rebuilding plans begin from the back out.
Kronwall Claimed
Staffan Kronwall was claimed by the Washington Capitals today on re-entry waivers. Burke knew he was taking a risk by doing this, but it's probably for the best that Staffan gets a shot to play in the NHL, where he belongs. It's a shame he never got going with the Leafs, but we wish him all the best.
The Leafs Could Get Tavares With Burke-esque Cunningness
The last time I wrote about how the Leafs could land John Tavares, the Islanders had 28 points and sat dead last in the NHL standings.
That hasn't changed.
What has changed between now and then, is my mindset on this whole Tavares sweepstakes. If the Leafs continue to fall, and believe me, they're about to, they definitely have a chance to slide into the second overall pick.
The assumption recently has been that John Tavares will go first. We're all very caught up on the way John completely tore up the World Juniors, and it seems that he's the unanimous top prospect coming into this year's draft.
But let's look at it in the way we've been told to look at it by folks such as Bob McKenzie of TSN who know the league well and are excellent predictors of what will happen in certain situations. Let's look at it with the mindset that whether Tavares or Hedman goes first overall is based on which team has the first pick.
Now let's assume that the Isles are first on the clock in this year's entry draft, and the Leafs second. If you put all other things aside - World Juniors and recent trends - Tavares and Hedman are still neck and neck. And it's true that GMs listen very carefully to NHL central scouting. If Tavares and Hedman are very close in ranking, then the Islanders will pick whoever would improve their team more. For the Islanders, that means Hedman has the inside track.
You see, the Islanders of late have been grabbing every forward they can get their hands on. They moved down in the draft because they weren't interested in Schenn, and opted to take a forward they liked a lot in Josh Bailey, a pick some might call a 'reach'.
The Islanders have a wealth of forward prospects, including Kyle Okposo, Corey Trivino, Josh Bailey, Blake Comeau, Robin Figren and Ryan O'Marra.
Who are their defense prospects? None worth mentioning, really.
So it makes sense that if the Isles have the first pick and want Hedman, they might be able to blackmail the second team if they want Tavares. If the Leafs want Tavares and have the second pick, the Isles might opt to switch places, just as they did in this past year's draft, where the Leafs took Schenn and the Islanders took Bailey. Or, the talks could melt down and the Islanders just take Hedman and number two takes Tavares anyways. But if Isles GM Garth Snow plays his cards right, he may be able to extort something out of the second team to go, by either threatening to take Tavares or simply not disclosing who the team plans to take.
If you're Burke, and you're set on landing Tavares, you are going to do it; you must have things your way. He would likely make it happen if this situation presented itself this way. He traded up to get both Sedin twins in 1999, so he might force his way into that first pick. It's also widely believed that Burke is searching for offensive prospects in this year's draft, due to the lack of blue-chip offensive talent in the Leafs system.
For Leafs fans who are sobbing as the Islanders continue to lose games, who have their fingers crossed that DiPietro isn't as injured as the reports are saying, that somehow Doug Weight and Bill Guerin don't end up being traded, and that Kyle Okposo all of a sudden carries the Islanders on his back, I tell you to breathe easy.
If the Leafs can just fall to the second pick overall, the road to Tavares might be there. I can assure that it's going to be a bumpy one, though.
Tavares in a Leafs Uniform? Pray to the Hockey Gods
As of today the Leafs sit in sixth to last place. This is, in fact, close to as far as the Leafs have fallen this season.They've been closer to fifteenth overall, and they've been as low as fifth last. What is true for the Leafs is that if they want to fall any further, they're going to have to make a valiant effort (or lack of) and get some luck on the way.
Also as of today, the Leafs have 10 more point than those lowly New York Islanders who have amassed a 12-26-4 record giving them 28 points. It's hard to get much worse than that! And the Leafs are far and away a much better team. In fact, it's not impossible to imagine Ron Wilson coaching this team right out of a top 10 pick.
And that's where Brian Burke comes in. If the Leafs want to get a draft pick, the Leafs need to strip this team to the ground - or at least closer than the other teams. If that doesn't work, then they'll need a bit of silly luck.
Here's my "Tavares Sweepstakes" wishlist.
1. The Islanders and Thrashers learn how to play hockey.
It's safe to say that these two teams would only rise above .500 if they joined the AHL. What's worse is that they're likely to trade whatever assets they have before the deadline. Doug Weight and Bill Guerin, the creaky old warriors that have held the fort for the Islanders this season, will be shipped out of New York for whatever they're worth. In Atlanta you are likely to see defenseman Schneider and perhaps one of their goalies dealt. So let's hope we get MVP performances from goalies Rick DiPietro and Kari Lehtonen, because the teams playing in front of them are atrocious.
2. The Lightning find ways to score, win in shootout.
The Lightning have only won 12 times this season. Almost as many times as they've won games, have they lost in the shootout or overtime: a total of 10, or approximately once in four games. They're getting heroic performances nightly from Mike Smith, but the defense in front of him are a bunch of pylons. The trading away of puck-moving blue liner Dan Boyle was one of the worst last season.
3. Dallas, Nashville, St. Louis and Los Angeles avoid the injury bug.
These teams all need to stay healthy in order to float above the Leafs in the standings. They all have the potential to win games (don't be surprised if the Stars squeak into the playoffs), but they need their men to get healthy/stay healthy. Nothing would please me more than seeing Andy McDonald and Paul Kariya both return for the Blues and revive that team in the latter portion of the season.
4. Ottawa needs to...do many things
Dear god. If you think this team is a few players away from becoming good, you're wrong. Let's look at this team from top to bottom and you tell me where there aren't holes.
Goal tending - some of the worst, and most inconsistent. Their best netminder is Alex Auld, a man who some thought had used up all of his lives staying in the NHL. But this journeyman has found a way to stick around, and he's made the most of it.
Defense - who, aside from Filip Kuba, can even move the puck through the neutral zone? And their supposed defensive specialist, Chris Phillips, is a godawful minus-20.
Up forward, you have three guys in Spezza, Heatley and Alfredsson who absolutley need to put up points nightly for this team to be successful. In the absence of that, you don't have much of a supporting cast. This is a one line team and everybody knows that. However, in previous years people have overemphasized their importance. Now we see what happens when they're the only thing the team can rely upon.
What would be ideal is for the teams mentioned above to care less about the draft and more about this current season. They need to adopt the Leafs mediocrity model of trying to squeak into the playoffs at all cost. Unfortunately, the Leafs might not be so fortunate, and the other bottom-dwellers in the league are probably all thinking about who they're going to send away before the trade deadline. We're going to need to outdo them.
Alas, we probably aren't going to get our way. The Leafs just don't give you that irk of terribleness that we've seen of the Islanders, Atlanta and Ottawa. My one glimmer of hope is that the Islanders beat us. Yes, we would be at 40 points and they would be at 26, were it not for that game.
If and when we don't get Tavares
There are piles of other players in this draft who the Leafs could use. I certainly wouldn't be upset seeing any one of these guys in Blue and White. Hedman is ranked first in the list I'm about to give, but I can assure you the Leafs need prospects at forward, and would likely take Tavares. Might help them sell more jerseys.
ISS Top Prospects for 2009 NHL Entry Draft, December 2008
1. Victor Hedman, LD 12/18/1990 L 6.06 220 Modo SweE
2. John Tavares, C 9/20/1990 L 6.00 200 Oshawa OHL
3. Matt Duchene, C 1/16/1991 L 5.11 196 Brampton OHL
4. Jared Cowen, LD 1/25/1991 L 6.04.7 218 Spokane WHL
5. Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi, LW 4/12/1991 L 6.01 198 Timra SweE
6. Jordan Schroeder, RW 9/29/1990 R 5.08.2 175 Minnesota WCHA
7. Evander Kane, C 8/2/1991 L 6.01 180 Vancouver WHL
8. Nazem Kadri, C 10/6/1990 L 5.11.5 180 London OHL
9. Richard Panik, C 2/7/1991 L 6.01 202 Trinec CzeJr
10. Brayden Schenn, C 8/22/1991 L 6.00 193 Brandon WHL