Trade Rumours Asunder!

After a relatively slow week or two it appears that the Leafs rumours front has picked right up.

Elliotte Friedman was heard on the radio saying that the rumour going around right now among GMs is that Toronto would trade their #7 to the Lightning, recieving back Ryan Malone and the #2 pick. Malone is a financial burden that the Lightning would like to have off their hands as he is under contract for 4.25 million a season until 2013.

Friedman claims that a large handful of GMs believe that this deal will go down. Interesting.

Brian Burke spoke to the media this morning and denied that such a proposal had been considered, at least by the Leafs. However, he did confirm that the Lightning have asked for Schenn and Kaberle to be included in the deal for the #2 pick.

Howard Berger said last night that 'nothing on the roster' should get in Burke's way for dealing up to try to get Tavares. Once again, he needs to be reminded that having the second pick probably doesn't affect the Islanders plans to draft Tavares. Hey, I could be wrong about that, but until I hear they want Hedman, I'm convinced they're fixed on Tavvy.

Link Ticker

• MLHS discusses the trade talk between Tampa and Toronto.
• Howard Berger gushes over Kane and Tavares.
• Pension Plan Puppets discusses the trade talk as well.
  
• Bleacher Report discusses the recipe for success in the Burke era.
• Toronto's Mayor may want three teams in the GTA.
  

Tavares Tire Kicking

Last night Howard Berger wrote on his blog that the asking price for the 2nd overall pick is our first rounder, Schenn and Kaberle. However, he described this as a 'loud whispering', likely meaning it hasn't come from any official source.

This is also the case with the speculation that Victor Hedman is the favourite of the Islanders brass. In fact, once Pierre LeBrun mentioned it on Hockey Night in Canada, publications started to spin it that LeBrun's claims were more than just speculation.

Unfortunately, the information we get online is tailored in specific ways and is shot around the internet in lightbeams, ending up twisted and garbled when it reaches its destination. But such is the reality with Tavares speculation, because like a game of telephone, everyone is part of a long chain of information sharing.

So Schenn, Kaberle and our 7th for Tampa Bay's 2nd overall pick? How does that sound?

Give me a break.

While the price will be high for the second overall pick, its hard to imagine anyone, even Burke, making a ridiculous trade like that for a player who hasn't played a single game in the NHL.

It's even more ridiculous that these two rumours, firstly that the Islanders want Hedman and secondly that Tampa Bay have set a price for the #2 pick, have been connected as one in a sort of Grand Strategy of Burke's.

I don't know how anyone can say Garth Snow is leaning towards Hedman. Especially since, as I wrote last week, the Islanders are hosting a first overall pick promotion. This clearly stands as evidence that the Islanders management are on the same page as its fans: Tavares would be the best selection in this years draft.

I'm in no position to say whether or not Brian Lawton has set an asking price for the #2 pick. I can tell you this though: Schenn is going nowhere. Kaberle perhaps. Our #7, certainly.

But as the Leafs management has said, you can't fill one hole by creating others. Certainly not when you don't even know if Tavares or Hedman will be left on the board at the second pick.

Link Ticker

• Read the Howard Berger post I'm referring to.
  
• Hockey Analysis chips into the discussion regarding the Leafs and Tavares.
  

Isles to Hold First Overall Pick Contest

GM Garth Snow and the New York Islanders announced today that the Islanders will be holding a contest to ask fans what they would do with the No. 1 pick overall.

Whatever the strategic purpose of this is, the main pull is promotion. My inclination is that if Snow is willing to hold a contest, it means that the first overall pick isn't going to be traded. I suppose that puts a damper on Burke's Tavares Quest.

But wait, what if Snow takes Hedman? Well, if he does he's going to be upsetting more than a few fans who stepped up to buy season tickets. The Islanders sales department has seen a "300-percent increase in phone calls and e-mail inquiries over last year at this time" and on pace to see 90 percent of its season tickets renewed. In other words, the first overall pick sells. And it sells well.

And for the Isles fans, its not Victor Hedman who sells, its John Tavares. A Newsday poll conducted showed that Tavares was favoured 10-1 over Hedman. So really, this competition is going to be a reaffirmation of that support.

So it becomes a lot clearer now why Snow refused to say who he was leaning towards for this year's draft. Not for trade leverage. Not to buy more time to make a decision. Rather, for promotion.

Link Ticker

• Betcha didn't know the Leafs own Carl Gunnarson and Leo Komarov, who are both playing in this World Championships.
• Down Goes Brown has gotten a hold of the transcript of the Minnesota Wild's interviews with John Ferguson, Pierre McGuire and Pat Quinn.

Burke Openly States He's Fixed on Tavares; What Now?

The New York Islanders won the draft lottery tonight, giving them rights to select first overall in this year's entry draft.

I've said all along that the Islanders haven't made up their mind on whether they want Tavares or Hedman. If they're really fixed on Tavares, which might be the case as an Islanders representative has been spending a lot of time in London with Tavares and the Knights, then I'm not sure Burke can do anything to wrestle the top pick from Garth Snow's hands.

Then again, Burke has been through this before. In Hartford, he was able to move up to the 2nd spot to grab Chris Pronger, and with Vancouver he moved up to get both of the Sedin twins. As Jim Kelley reports, Burke is not blowing hot air when he says he wants Tavares.

It's hard to imagine what it's going to take to land him, but believe me Burke will mount one hell of a campaign.

Leafs fans, be ready to see Burke overpay for Tavares. Keep in mind, if you want to see this team being led by a top end offensive talent for years to come, then you should be cheering Burke all the way along.

Tavares Tuesday: When the Finalists Cash Their Coins

Note from Goose: Today we are joined by Bradley Garton who will be discussing the Leafs bleak Tavares hopes. I found him on the street and got him to write this post on a piece of paper. This is what he said.

Afternoon folks. With all the draft draw mayhem Goose has been out tracking the final seconds in the race for the Tavares Cup. That being said, I've been drafted to fill in the void between postings; I figure it's the least I can do, the best being my incarceration for the alleged tampering of bingo machines.

So, at long last, Toronto's race for the Tavares Cup has come to a statistical, if not definite, close. It's at this point where, looking back, I think we may all have pressed our imaginations a little too hard against the cold, hard wall of reality; that Tavares is about as likely to become a Leaf as Evgeni Malkin is to be nominated into the House of Commons. This isn't to say we were wrong for dreaming, just that those bright, puffy clouds bearing the number 61 paved the way to much sadder, smaller figures.

Feeling obligated to do what I can to help the fans, I've been doing my best to keep the dream going. Investigating the rules for the draft lottery I learned there are 1001 possible draw combinations and that only 1000 of these are assigned to the bottom 14 teams. So, I called up the big guy Gary Bettman with the hopes that if that one extra number is drawn, John will be evenly distributed between all 30 teams for the 2009-2010 season.

So far he hasn't returned my calls, but my hopes are high.

So keep your chins up folks, and to John: I hope you're looking forward to the 8 periods you may just be spending with us next year.

Critical Juncture in Leaf's Tavares Hopes Has Arrived

John Tavares broke the record for most career goals in the OHL tonight, a record previously held by Peter Lee at 213. John came into the game tonight against the Windsor Spitfires with just two games remaining and one goal behind Peter Lee's total. He tied that marker early in the game. He then broke the record, and added another one for good measure.

Once again Leafs fans are reminded how poor our draft positioning is at the moment - that is, because we really want the first pick to secure Tavares. Sure, every team in the league would like John. But the Leafs really have nobody to turn to on offense to be that go-to guy. Sooner or later, John Tavares will be a that kind of player for an NHL franchise.

And this is why it's important that we lose, at least, our next three games. You see, the next three times the Leafs play will be against teams who are surefire top 10 draft pickers in this year's draft. At least two of these teams will be in the top five, and good money has all three of them in that prestigious group. Those teams being the Ottawa Senators, New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning. If we can somehow lose to all three of these dreadful teams, we will be closing the gap on that last place spot.

Here's the rest of Toronto's Tavares Cup faceoffs:

March 9 - @ Ottawa
March 10 - vs. New York Islanders
March 12 - vs. Tampa Bay
March 17 - @ Tampa Bay
April 11 - Ottawa

Not a whole lot of opportunity left for us set up other Tavares Cuppers to leap-frog us.

We might have to do it ourselves. We're surely poised to do it, seeing how depleted our defensive core is looking, and the challenging matchups we face down the stretch.

We can hope to lose to the following teams:
Calgary (1 game)
Florida (1 game)
Montreal (2 games)
Buffalo (2 games)
Washington (1 game)
Philadelphia (2 games)
Boston (1 game)
New Jersey (1 game)

A good solid 11 losses in total. Should help the cause.

So in the best case scenario, with us losing all TC matchups as well, we go 0-16 from here on in. If we did that, the last place Islanders would need to go 7-7-1 to catch us.

There's a small margin for error, and we also have to keep in mind that the other bottom dwellers could take the 30th too, but there's always hope.

If you don't like seeing the Leafs lose, I'm sorry to break your heart. It's true that it's nice to see the Leafs get rewarded for their efforts.

But I'd much rather the Leafs draft a franchise forward and put this futile season behind them, right now.

The Tavares Cup!

With there being virtually no chance of the Leafs making the playoffs this year, I think it not to be rash to suggest that the last stretch of the season is a competition between who can be the worst team possible and get that #1 pick in this year's draft, barring a successful draft lottery.

Who will be the Biggest Loser? Like golf, the Tavares Cup is all about who can rack up the lowest score. Let's take a look at the competitors:

True Cup Contenders:

New York Islanders

Atlanta Thrashers

Toronto Maple Leafs

Colorado Avalanche

Runners Up:

Ottawa Senators

Tampa Bay Lightning

Thanks for Coming Out:

Los Angeles Kings

Phoenix Coyotes

Nashville Predators

Right now we sit five points ahead of the Atlanta Thrashers, who occupy 29th place, and 13 points ahead of New York. This is actually much, much closer than I expected. Once the Leafs got off to a .500 start in the first month or so, I thought we might have to settle for anywhere from the 8th-15th pick. Seems like we're at least going to try to make a run at the Cup.

But what's this? The Islanders and Thrashers seem to be making some big moves to worsen their rosters for a Cup run. The Thrashers recently traded Schneider to Montreal and the Islanders traded Comrie and Campoli to the Senators. This proactivity by these two teams means that they're serious about winning the TC this year, and the Senators are not. And I couldn't be happier that our divisional rival still thinks it can make the playoffs. Make it happen, Burkie.

Brian Burke celebrating the Leafs first Tavares Cup in franchise history.

The Leafs Could Get Tavares With Burke-esque Cunningness

The last time I wrote about how the Leafs could land John Tavares, the Islanders had 28 points and sat dead last in the NHL standings.

That hasn't changed.

What has changed between now and then, is my mindset on this whole Tavares sweepstakes. If the Leafs continue to fall, and believe me, they're about to, they definitely have a chance to slide into the second overall pick.

The assumption recently has been that John Tavares will go first. We're all very caught up on the way John completely tore up the World Juniors, and it seems that he's the unanimous top prospect coming into this year's draft.

But let's look at it in the way we've been told to look at it by folks such as Bob McKenzie of TSN who know the league well and are excellent predictors of what will happen in certain situations. Let's look at it with the mindset that whether Tavares or Hedman goes first overall is based on which team has the first pick.

Now let's assume that the Isles are first on the clock in this year's entry draft, and the Leafs second. If you put all other things aside - World Juniors and recent trends - Tavares and Hedman are still neck and neck. And it's true that GMs listen very carefully to NHL central scouting. If Tavares and Hedman are very close in ranking, then the Islanders will pick whoever would improve their team more. For the Islanders, that means Hedman has the inside track.

You see, the Islanders of late have been grabbing every forward they can get their hands on. They moved down in the draft because they weren't interested in Schenn, and opted to take a forward they liked a lot in Josh Bailey, a pick some might call a 'reach'.

The Islanders have a wealth of forward prospects, including Kyle Okposo, Corey Trivino, Josh Bailey, Blake Comeau, Robin Figren and Ryan O'Marra.

Who are their defense prospects? None worth mentioning, really.

So it makes sense that if the Isles have the first pick and want Hedman, they might be able to blackmail the second team if they want Tavares. If the Leafs want Tavares and have the second pick, the Isles might opt to switch places, just as they did in this past year's draft, where the Leafs took Schenn and the Islanders took Bailey. Or, the talks could melt down and the Islanders just take Hedman and number two takes Tavares anyways. But if Isles GM Garth Snow plays his cards right, he may be able to extort something out of the second team to go, by either threatening to take Tavares or simply not disclosing who the team plans to take.

If you're Burke, and you're set on landing Tavares, you are going to do it; you must have things your way. He would likely make it happen if this situation presented itself this way. He traded up to get both Sedin twins in 1999, so he might force his way into that first pick. It's also widely believed that Burke is searching for offensive prospects in this year's draft, due to the lack of blue-chip offensive talent in the Leafs system.

For Leafs fans who are sobbing as the Islanders continue to lose games, who have their fingers crossed that DiPietro isn't as injured as the reports are saying, that somehow Doug Weight and Bill Guerin don't end up being traded, and that Kyle Okposo all of a sudden carries the Islanders on his back, I tell you to breathe easy.

If the Leafs can just fall to the second pick overall, the road to Tavares might be there. I can assure that it's going to be a bumpy one, though.

Tavares in a Leafs Uniform? Pray to the Hockey Gods

As of today the Leafs sit in sixth to last place. This is, in fact, close to as far as the Leafs have fallen this season.They've been closer to fifteenth overall, and they've been as low as fifth last. What is true for the Leafs is that if they want to fall any further, they're going to have to make a valiant effort (or lack of) and get some luck on the way.

Also as of today, the Leafs have 10 more point than those lowly New York Islanders who have amassed a 12-26-4 record giving them 28 points. It's hard to get much worse than that! And the Leafs are far and away a much better team. In fact, it's not impossible to imagine Ron Wilson coaching this team right out of a top 10 pick.

And that's where Brian Burke comes in. If the Leafs want to get a draft pick, the Leafs need to strip this team to the ground - or at least closer than the other teams. If that doesn't work, then they'll need a bit of silly luck.

Here's my "Tavares Sweepstakes" wishlist.

1. The Islanders and Thrashers learn how to play hockey.
It's safe to say that these two teams would only rise above .500 if they joined the AHL. What's worse is that they're likely to trade whatever assets they have before the deadline. Doug Weight and Bill Guerin, the creaky old warriors that have held the fort for the Islanders this season, will be shipped out of New York for whatever they're worth. In Atlanta you are likely to see defenseman Schneider and perhaps one of their goalies dealt. So let's hope we get MVP performances from goalies Rick DiPietro and Kari Lehtonen, because the teams playing in front of them are atrocious.

2. The Lightning find ways to score, win in shootout.
The Lightning have only won 12 times this season. Almost as many times as they've won games, have they lost in the shootout or overtime: a total of 10, or approximately once in four games. They're getting heroic performances nightly from Mike Smith, but the defense in front of him are a bunch of pylons. The trading away of puck-moving blue liner Dan Boyle was one of the worst last season.

3. Dallas, Nashville, St. Louis and Los Angeles avoid the injury bug.
These teams all need to stay healthy in order to float above the Leafs in the standings. They all have the potential to win games (don't be surprised if the Stars squeak into the playoffs), but they need their men to get healthy/stay healthy. Nothing would please me more than seeing Andy McDonald and Paul Kariya both return for the Blues and revive that team in the latter portion of the season.

4. Ottawa needs to...do many things
Dear god. If you think this team is a few players away from becoming good, you're wrong. Let's look at this team from top to bottom and you tell me where there aren't holes.

Goal tending - some of the worst, and most inconsistent. Their best netminder is Alex Auld, a man who some thought had used up all of his lives staying in the NHL. But this journeyman has found a way to stick around, and he's made the most of it.

Defense - who, aside from Filip Kuba, can even move the puck through the neutral zone? And their supposed defensive specialist, Chris Phillips, is a godawful minus-20.

Up forward, you have three guys in Spezza, Heatley and Alfredsson who absolutley need to put up points nightly for this team to be successful. In the absence of that, you don't have much of a supporting cast. This is a one line team and everybody knows that. However, in previous years people have overemphasized their importance. Now we see what happens when they're the only thing the team can rely upon.

What would be ideal is for the teams mentioned above to care less about the draft and more about this current season. They need to adopt the Leafs mediocrity model of trying to squeak into the playoffs at all cost. Unfortunately, the Leafs might not be so fortunate, and the other bottom-dwellers in the league are probably all thinking about who they're going to send away before the trade deadline. We're going to need to outdo them.

Alas, we probably aren't going to get our way. The Leafs just don't give you that irk of terribleness that we've seen of the Islanders, Atlanta and Ottawa. My one glimmer of hope is that the Islanders beat us. Yes, we would be at 40 points and they would be at 26, were it not for that game.

If and when we don't get Tavares
There are piles of other players in this draft who the Leafs could use. I certainly wouldn't be upset seeing any one of these guys in Blue and White. Hedman is ranked first in the list I'm about to give, but I can assure you the Leafs need prospects at forward, and would likely take Tavares. Might help them sell more jerseys.

ISS Top Prospects for 2009 NHL Entry Draft, December 2008
1. Victor Hedman, LD 12/18/1990 L 6.06 220 Modo SweE
2. John Tavares, C 9/20/1990 L 6.00 200 Oshawa OHL
3. Matt Duchene, C 1/16/1991 L 5.11 196 Brampton OHL
4. Jared Cowen, LD 1/25/1991 L 6.04.7 218 Spokane WHL
5. Magnus Svensson-Paajarvi, LW 4/12/1991 L 6.01 198 Timra SweE
6. Jordan Schroeder, RW 9/29/1990 R 5.08.2 175 Minnesota WCHA
7. Evander Kane, C 8/2/1991 L 6.01 180 Vancouver WHL
8. Nazem Kadri, C 10/6/1990 L 5.11.5 180 London OHL
9. Richard Panik, C 2/7/1991 L 6.01 202 Trinec CzeJr
10. Brayden Schenn, C 8/22/1991 L 6.00 193 Brandon WHL